“I’m an economist. So, I don’t know any way to repeal the law of supply and demand. If you want to decrease the price, you have to dramatically increase the supply.”
This quote was Harvard economist Ed Glaeser’s opening line at the 2016 Cities for Tomorrow Conference. An idea so simple and so profound that it almost gave me a headache. It was such a compelling statement that part of me wanted him to drop the mic and just walk off stage. But the urban nerd part of me was also big-time man-crushing.
Ed Glaeser is famous for his book, Triumph of the City, which has been one of the foundational books guiding my downtown work for over a decade—dating back to my time at Geekdom, The 80/20 Foundation, Tech Bloc, and now the work I do in real estate. So, as you can imagine, I was stoked to see him in person.
This was one of the first panels of the conference, a debate between Ed Glaeser and the head of the New York City Historical Society. Their focus was addressing how expensive New York City had become.
New York City, like many popular cities, is suffering from what one of my friends calls a “Champagne Problem.” That problem is that the city is so attractive, so ripe with job opportunities, and so electrifying to young people that millions want to move there. When that happens, a housing shortage emerges—one we now see playing out all over America in first-tier cities like San Francisco, Austin, and Denver.
I got involved with San Antonio’s downtown renaissance back in 2008. Since then, I have come to see that New York City’s problem is quickly becoming San Antonio’s problem. I have started hearing more and more conversations about the dreaded “gentrification” word. The more articles I read and the more policy I watch pass, the more worried I become. So today, I aim to sell this simple idea: We need more, not less. Allow me to build a brief case for this.
The World Is Going Urban
According to the World Bank, by the year 2050, nearly 70% of the world’s global population will live in cities. That is truly a staggering statistic. Ed Glaeser touches on one of the big reasons why in his book: The simple fact is that cities provide the greatest number of economic opportunities anywhere in the world. If you are poor and wanting to better your life, history shows that you always look toward the nearest metropolis to improve your station. This trend feeds into a more local issue.
San Antonio’s Million New Residents
Projections indicate that by 2040, the population of the San Antonio metropolitan statistical area (MSA) could increase by about one million residents, reaching approximately 3.6 million. The obvious first problem? We do not have one million new dwellings. This means San Antonio is way behind in building what it needs to meet the demand that is coming—and is already here. We need more of everything: more houses, more condos, and more apartments. We need them everywhere—in the urban core and the suburbs. We obviously need to build smartly and with standards, but make no mistake: We have to build, or we can kiss the last bits of affordability goodbye.
We Need Saturation, Not Suffocation
Every time I see a development get voted down, a little part of my heart breaks. Why? Because Ed Glaeser is right about the economics. The reason prices are skyrocketing is that the thing everyone wants—housing—is in short supply. Every time we block an apartment complex or condo project, we make it worse. Take the Hays Street Bridge project, for example. The second that development was stopped, all it did was make the housing around the project even more valuable. Now, all that housing is even rarer. They literally accelerated the very thing they didn’t want to happen.
The Tax Burden
When supply is low, it creates the conditions for bidding wars. This happens because more people want a house than there are houses available. So, a home is listed for $200K, and someone who just moved here from California or New York tells their realtor, “Offer $250K,” and boom—done. Now, they’ve raised the tax base of the entire neighborhood. Not because they wanted to harm their neighbors, but because the supply is low.
The Bottom Line
San Antonio is at a crossroads. We can either embrace smart, sustainable growth that meets the demands of our rapidly increasing population, or we can continue down a path of housing scarcity, skyrocketing prices, and displacement. The reality is clear: we need to build more—a lot more.
This isn’t just about supply and demand; it’s about the kind of city we want to be. Do we want a San Antonio that is inclusive, where teachers, service workers, and young professionals can afford to live? Or do we want a city that prices out its own residents, forcing them farther and farther from opportunity?
I know this is a sensitive topic. Housing is deeply personal, and the word ‘gentrification’ alone can ignite passionate debates. But if we’re serious about solutions, we have to face these conversations head-on. It’s time to talk about how city policy, real estate developers, and community priorities intersect—and where we go from here.
In Part 2 of this series, I’ll tackle the issue that sparks the most controversy: gentrification. We’ll explore the policies shaping San Antonio’s housing market, the role of developers, and whether we’re truly building a city for everyone. Stay tuned.